Fahmi, Muhamad (2025) SISTEM INFORMASI BERBASIS WEB UNTUK PERAMALAN VOLUME PAKET BERDASARKAN DATA HISTORIS DENGAN METODE TREND MOMENT (Studi kasus: JNE Cabang Kuningan). S1 / D3 thesis, Universitas Kuningan.

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Official URL: https://rama.uniku.ac.id

Abstract

JNE Cabang Kuningan merupakan salah satu perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang jasa ekspedisi di Kabupaten Kuningan. Permasalahan utama yang dihadapi adalah
fluktuasi volume kiriman paket yang tidak menentu, sehingga menyulitkan dalam perencanaan operasional dan pengelolaan sumber daya manusia. Penelitian ini
bertujuan untuk membangun sistem informasi peramalan volume paket berbasis web yang mampu memperkirakan jumlah volume paket di masa yang akan datang.
Pengembangan sistem informasi peramalan menggunakan pendekatan pengembangan prototipe yang terdiri dari tahapan analisis kebutuhan, pembangunan prototipe, evaluasi prototipe, mengkodekan sistem, menguji sistem,
evaluasi sistem hingga yang terakhir penggunaan sistem. Sistem informasi yang dibangun mengimplementasikain metode Trend Moment untuk memperkirakan jumlah volume paket di masa yang akan datang. Metode Trend Moment dipilih karena keunggulannya dalam penggunaan parameter x, yang memungkinkan penerapan baik pada data historis dengan jumlah genap maupun ganjil, sebab urutan parameter x selalu dimulai dari angka 0. Hasil penerapan metode trend moment menunjukkan nilai akurasi peramalan termasuk kedalam kriterias sangat baik, terlihat dari nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 9,874%.
Sistem ini juga dilengkapi fitur rekomendasi jumlah kurir berdasarkan hasil peramalan, sehingga dapat menjadi dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan operasional dalam menghadapi fluktuasi volume kiriman paket. Sistem informasi
yang dibangun diharapkan dapat meningkatkan pengelolaan sumberdaya manusia dan mempermudah dalam perancanaan operasional.

JNE Kuningan is one of the companies engaged in courier services located in Kuningan Regency. The primary issue faced is the inconsistent fluctuation in the volume of delivered packages, which hampers effective operational planning and efficient human resource management. This study aims to develop a web-based package volume forecasting information system for predicting the number of
packages in future periods. The system development adopts a prototype-based approach, consisting of several stages: requirements analysis, prototype construction, prototype evaluation, system coding, system testing, system
evaluation, and final system implementation. The developed forecasting system implements the Trend Moment method to estimate future package volumes. This method is chosen for its strength in utilizing the x parameter, which enables
application to both even and odd sets of historical data, as the parameter always begins from the value of zero. The implementation of the Trend Moment method in
his system yielded a forecasting accuracy categorized as very good, as indicated by a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 9.874%. In addition, the
system is equipped with a courier recommendation feature based on forecasting results, making it a valuable tool for operational decision-making, especially in addressing fluctuations in package delivery volumes. The developed information system is expected to improve human resource and streamline operational planning processes.

Item Type: Thesis (S1 / D3)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Peramalan, Volume Paket, Trend Moment, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Prototipe. Forecasting, Package Volume, Trend Moment, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Prototype.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > S1 Sistem Informasi
Depositing User: S.Kom Muhamad Fahmi
Date Deposited: 09 Dec 2025 23:40
Last Modified: 09 Dec 2025 23:40
URI: https://rama.uniku.ac.id/id/eprint/4086

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