Zaini, Fahmi Ibnu (2024) SISTEM INFORMASI PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) DENGAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (DES) PADA SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT (SCM) PAKAN TERNAK DI KSU KARYA NUGRAHA. S1 / D3 thesis, Universitas Kuningan.

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Official URL: https://rama.uniku.ac.id

Abstract

Perkembangan bisnis di Indonesia yang semakin ketat menimbulkan persaingan yang tinggi antar perusahaan, termasuk di sektor Koperasi Serba Usaha (KSU) Karya Nugraha Jaya yang bergerak dalam bidang peternakan sapi perah. Salah satu tantangan utama yang dihadapi adalah pengelolaan stok pakan ternak yang belum terintegrasi dengan baik, yang masih dilakukan secara manual sehingga menyulitkan pihak pengelola dalam memprediksi kebutuhan stok di masa depan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan aplikasi sistem informasi forecasting dengan menerapkan Supply Chain Management (SCM) dan metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) guna memprediksi kebutuhan pakan ternak di KSU Karya Nugraha Jaya. Metode DES dipilih karena kemampuannya dalam menangkap pola tren yang berkelanjutan dalam data. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa aplikasi ini berhasil mencapai nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 18,70%, yang menunjukkan tingkat akurasi yang cukup baik dalam memprediksi kebutuhan stok. Dengan demikian, aplikasi ini diharapkan mampu memprediksi dan mengelola stok pakan dengan baik, sehingga membantu KSU Karya Nugraha Jaya mengelola stok pakan ternak secara lebih efisien serta meminimalkan risiko kelebihan atau kekurangan stok di masa mendatang.
Kata Kunci : Supply Chain Management, Double Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting kebutuhan stok, Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

The growing intensity of business competition in Indonesia has created significant challenges for companies, including those in the multipurpose cooperative sector. KSU Karya Nugraha Jaya, which specializes in dairy farming, faces a critical issue with its feed stock management. The current manual system lacks integration, making difficulty for the management to forecast future stock requirements accurately. This research focuses on developing an information system application for forecasting feed requirements by incorporating Supply Chain Management (SCM) principles and the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method. DES is selected due to its ability to effectively identify and adapt to continuous trends in data. The application’s performance was evaluated, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 18.70%, which indicates a reasonably high degree of accuracy in predicting feed needs. By implementing this application, KSU Karya Nugraha Jaya is expected to enhance the efficiency of its feed stock management. This improvement will help to mitigate the risks associated with overstocking or understocking, ensuring a more streamlined and effective operational process.
Kata Kunci : Supply Chain Management, Double Exponential Smoothing, Feed Stock Management, Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

Item Type: Thesis (S1 / D3)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Supply Chain Management, Double Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting kebutuhan stok, Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Supply Chain Management, Double Exponential Smoothing, Feed Stock Management, Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software
Divisions: Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > S1 Sistem Informasi
Depositing User: S.Kom Fahmi Ibnu Zaini
Date Deposited: 07 May 2025 06:51
Last Modified: 07 May 2025 06:51
URI: https://rama.uniku.ac.id/id/eprint/2485

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