Cahyani, Zikra Laela (2025) SISTEM INFORMASI PERAMALAN PENJUALAN BIBIT JAMUR DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BERBASIS WEB DI ANDALAN BAGJA JAMUR. S1 / D3 thesis, Universitas Kuningan.

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Official URL: https://rama.uniku.ac.id

Abstract

Andalan Bagja Jamur bergerak di bidang budidaya jamur tiram dan telah menjadi salah satu produsen bibir jamur di Kuningan. Permasalahan yang sering dihadapi adalah kelebihan dan kekurangan stok bibit jamur yang disebabkan oleh permintaan bibit jamur yang sulit diprediksi. Selain itu, sering mengalami kesalahan dalam pencatatan serta adanya keterbatasan dalam mengakses data yang disebabkan oleh pencatatan penjualan yang masih menggunakan buku catatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi penjualan bibit jamur di masa yang akan datang dengan menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing berbasis web untuk mengatasi permasalahan kelebihan dan kekurangan stok bibit jamur. Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dipergunakan sebagai metode peramalan dikarenakan memiliki sifat pemulusan yang lebih baik dari data yang dipergunakan menunjukan pola trend. Sistem dibangun melalui beberapa tahapan yaitu Pengumpulan kebutuhan, Pembangunan prototype, Evaluasi prototyping, Kodifikasi sistem, Uji coba sistem, Evaluasi sistem dan Penggunaan sistem sesuai metode pengembangan sistem Prototype. Data yang dipergunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data penjualan selama 3 tahun, mulai dari April 2022 hingga Maret 2025. Hasil penelitian menunjukan tingkat akurasi yang berada pada kategori Sangat Baik dilihat dari nilai Mean Percentage Absolute Error sebesar 5,11%. Sistem informasi peramalan penjualan ini diharapkan membantu Andalan Bagja Jamur mengurangi risiko kelebihan dan kekurangan stok bibit jamur.

Andalan Bagja Jamur is engaged in oyster mushroom cultivation and has become one of the mushroom lip producers in Kuningan. The problem that is often faced is the excess and shortage of mushroom spawn stock caused by the unpredictable demand for mushroom spawn. In addition, it often experiences errors in recording and there are limitations in accessing data caused by recording sales that still use notebooks. This study aims to predict future sales of mushroom spawn using the web-based Double Exponential Smoothing method to overcome the problem of excess and shortage of mushroom spawn stock. The Double Exponential Smoothing method is used as a forecasting method because it has better smoothing properties than the data used which shows a trend pattern. The system is built through several stages, namely gathering requirements, prototype development, prototyping evaluation, system codification, system testing, system evaluation and system usage according to the Prototype system development method. The data used in this reSearch is sales data for 3 years, starting from April 2022 to March 2025. The results showed the level of accuracy which was in the Very Good category seen from the Mean Percentage Absolute Error value of 5.11%. This sales forecasting information system is expected to help Andalan Bagja Jamur reduce the risk of excess and shortage of mushroom spawn stock.

Item Type: Thesis (S1 / D3)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Peramalan, Penjualan, Bibit Jamur, Double Exponential Smoothing, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > S1 Sistem Informasi
Depositing User: S.Kom Zikra Laela Cahyani
Date Deposited: 25 May 2026 06:15
Last Modified: 25 May 2026 06:15
URI: https://rama.uniku.ac.id/id/eprint/5138

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