Hidayat, Naufal (2025) SISTEM INFORMASI PERAMALAN PENJUALAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BERBASIS WEB (Studi Kasus: Toko Inter Sport). S1 / D3 thesis, Universitas Kuningan.

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Official URL: https://rama.uniku.ac.id

Abstract

Toko Inter Sport merupakan toko retail yang menyediakan berbagai produk olahraga, berlokasi di Kecamatan Kersana, Kabupaten Brebes, beroperasi sejak tahun 2017. Namun, toko ini menghadapi permasalahan dalam manajemen stok, seperti kelebihan atau kekurangan persediaan barang. Hal ini disebabkan oleh proses pemesanan yang masih dilakukan berdasarkan perkiraan subjektif tanpa didukung analisis data yang akurat. Selain itu, sistem pencatatan penjualan masih menggunakan buku catatan, yang sering kali menyebabkan data tidak tercatat dengan baik dan menyulitkan analisis permintaan konsumen. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, peneliti menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) dalam meramalkan penjualan. Metode TES dipilih karena mampu menangani pola tren dan pola musiman secara bersamaan, serta memberikan tingkat akurasi yang lebih tinggi untuk data berpola kompleks. Metode pengembangan sistem yang digunakan adalah prototype dan perancangan menggunakan UML. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun sebuah sistem informasi peramalan penjualan berbasis web yang dapat membantu menentukan jumlah penjualan di masa mendatang. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan nilai MAPE dari peramalan penjualan produk sepatu bola Ortuseight Catalyst Legion FG – Aqua White sebesar 13,38% dan masuk dalam kategori baik. Dengan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing dapat menentukan jumlah penjualan yang akan datang sehingga dapat digunakan untuk memudahkan pemilik usaha dalam membuat keputusan.
Inter Sport Store, a retail business located in Kersana District, Brebes Regency, has been operating since 2017. Despite its longevity, the store faces ongoing challenges in inventory management, frequently encountering stock surpluses or shortages. These issues primarily result from a manual ordering process that relies on subjective estimation, without the support of accurate data analysis. Furthermore, sales records are still maintained manually in notebooks, making it difficult to track data and analyze consumer demand effectively. To overcome these challenges, this study proposes the development of a web-based sales forecasting system using the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) method. TES is selected for its ability to account for both trend and seasonal patterns, making it well-suited for forecasting complex time-series data. The system is developed using the prototype development method and is designed with Unified Modeling Language (UML) diagrams to visualize the structure and flow. The objective of this research is to support better decision-making in inventory and procurement planning by providing accurate sales predictions. Forecasting results for the Ortuseight Catalyst Legion FG – Aqua White soccer shoe yielded a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 13,38%, which is considered within the "good" accuracy range. The implementation of this forecasting system is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support data-driven decision-making for store management.

Item Type: Thesis (S1 / D3)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Peramalan, Penjualan, Triple Exponential Smoothing Mean Absoloute Percentage Error (MAPE), Forecasting, Sales, Triple Exponential Smoothing
Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > S1 Sistem Informasi
Depositing User: S.Kom Naufal Hidayat
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2025 04:44
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2025 04:44
URI: https://rama.uniku.ac.id/id/eprint/3220

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